tl;dr - I relapsed, but here is some data for you to see that our chances are good - and better as time goes by!
Guys, this is sad of me, and Iâm sorry about this, but I have relapsed. It is a help group, and since I somehow started it, I owe you explanation, however trivial it may be.
My country is currently in the heatwave time, and summer vacations. On one hand, work that I have with other people has mostly stalled. On the other, the work that I have on my own is going very slowlyâŠ
I got myself a bit of break and in all this heat somehow thought that, well⊠why not? I mean, there is plenty of why nots! There always are, but not every time we think about it - and so, my monster won a bit of attention, enoughâŠ
So, Iâm going back to you at Day 0. A long streak broken, but still - Iâm going back to stand along all of you and fight another day! And then another!
On this âopportunityâ, I forced myself to check some statistics about our community and prepared a plot:
I estimated the probabilities of reaching different days, and they are as below:
Target |
Start |
Increase |
Chance of success |
Day 2 |
Day 1 |
1 day |
82.95% |
Day 3 |
Day 2 |
1 day |
75.65% |
Day 4 |
Day 3 |
1 day |
78.65% |
Day 6 |
Day 4 |
2 days |
69.25% |
Day 8 |
Day 6 |
2 days |
76.6% |
Day 11 |
Day 8 |
3 days |
74.85% |
Day 16 |
Day 11 |
5 days |
72.4% |
Day 23 |
Day 16 |
7 days |
74.85% |
Day 32 |
Day 23 |
9 days |
78.3% |
Day 45 |
Day 32 |
13 days |
78.8% |
Day 64 |
Day 45 |
19 days |
78.5% |
Day 91 |
Day 64 |
27 days |
77.6% |
Day 128 |
Day 91 |
37 days |
75.75% |
Day 181 |
Day 128 |
53 days |
71.25% |
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And so, your chances are really good! One more plot, so that you see how chances of increasing your streak by a day. 

The red lines represent our targets - 18, 30, 60 and 90 days. You can easily see - the only decrease happens after reaching day 2, after which youâre back on track - your probability of getting one more day to your streak gets almost 100% quickly! Donât forget it, never forget it - Every day youâre more likely to succeed than to fail!